Work Sample Reflection:

The first essay that I wrote for this class was about strong long termism. Strong longtermism is a philosophical and ethical stance that prioritizes actions and decisions based on their long-term impact on the future of humanity and sentient beings. It asserts that we should focus on maximizing the positive outcomes and minimizing the negative consequences over the long term, even if it requires sacrifices or trade-offs in the short term. The importance of strong longtermism lies in its recognition of the interconnectedness of present actions and future outcomes. By adopting a long-term perspective, individuals, organizations, and societies can make more informed and responsible choices that contribute to a better and more sustainable future for all. This essay was different from any essay that I have ever written before because not only were we allowed to use ChatGPT to write it we were required to use ChatGPT. I think the use of AI definitely helped support my ideas in a more concise and accurate way than I could have done on my own. I thought it was cool playing with the AIand asking it different kinds of questions to help me form my ideas and help me with the format of the paper itself 

Strong Longtermism

“Either Humanity takes control of its destiny and reduces the risk to a sustainable level, or we destroy ourselves.” (Ord, p.31) This is what Toby Ord believes will happen if society does not adopt the ideals of Strong long termism. Strong long termism is the idea that it is the responsibility of the current generation to preserve humanity’s potential and to protect it against the risk of future destruction. So that ultimately future descendants are able to fulfill humanity’s potential. Our potential is a matter of what humanity can achieve through the combined actions of each and every human. We can do this by “emphasizing the interconnectedness of present and future generations and the moral imperative to prevent catastrophic outcomes. We must challenge conventional notions of value and responsibility, calling for a shift in how we conceptualize and address pressing global issues such as climate change, technological innovation, and nuclear proliferation.” Key principles of Strong long termism include the belief that the long term future is more important than the present, there is a heavy focus on existential risks, probability weighted outcomes, effective altruism, interconnectedness of global challenges, technological progress and stewardship and global cooperation and coordination. In short, Strong Long Termism is the calculation and mitigation of the impacts of our current actions on humanity’s long term future. 

“Prioritizing the long-term future entails a shift in perspective from immediate gratification and narrow self-interest towards a broader consideration of the collective welfare of humanity and the preservation of life and flourishing over extended timescales.” This change of perspective may be hard to adopt in the beginning but the outcome of these ethical implications would be well worthwhile. Some examples of the ethical implications that will help shape this change in perspective are as follows. Intergenerational justice is important because in order for future generations to flourish it is essential that different generations have equal opportunity and quality of life and that material resources are distributed equitably across them. Sustainability is another idea that is crucial for the formation of strong long termism. Without the concept of sustainability there would be no safeguards in place to protect and preserve natural resources, ecosystems, and environmental stability. This includes mitigating climate change, protecting biodiversity, and ensuring the resilience of ecological systems. Building a sustainable future and cultivating sustainable ways of living will reduce pollution and protect habitats of plants and animals. Another ethical implication to be considered is the Precautionary principle. The Precautionary principle “suggests that in the face of uncertainty and potentially catastrophic risks, it is prudent to air on the side of caution and take preventive action to avoid irreversible harm.”

Strong long termism can be compatible with various ethical frameworks. Some of the key ethical frameworks that are compatible with Strong long termism are Consequentialism, Utilitarianism, Effective Altruism, Contractualism and Prioritarianism. Strong long termism aligns with consequentialist thinking by emphasizing the importance of maximizing positive outcomes over the long term, even if it requires sacrifices in the short term. Strong long termism shares common ground with utilitarianism, as it seeks to maximize the long-term flourishing and well-being of sentient beings. Effective Altruism is a framework that is at the center of strong long termism because It emphasizes the importance of prioritizing actions that have a significant and positive influence on the long-term future. Strong long termism can be compatible with contractualist thinking because it promotes principles of intergenerational justice. Last but not least Prioritarianism gives greater priority to improving the well-being of the worst off. In the context of Strong long termism, prioritizing the long-term future can be seen as benefiting those who would otherwise be worse off in potential future scenarios of existential risk or catastrophe.

While the core idea of long termism is consistent across different variations, there are several distinct kinds of long termism that emphasize different aspects or approaches to addressing long-term concerns.  “While other forms of long termism may also consider the long-term consequences of actions, strong long termism places a greater emphasis on ensuring the continued existence and well-being of humanity over vast timescales, potentially stretching millions or billions of years into the future.” Strong long termism is also different because it takes a more broad and inclusive approach to moral consideration. Other forms of long termism may place less emphasis on other aspects of long-term flourishing, such as quality of life or the diversity of future civilizations. Also the focus on existential risk mitigation distinguishes strong long termism from other moral frameworks that may prioritize different types of risks or ethical considerations.

The first and main step in implementing Strong long termism is reducing the risk of human extinction and reducing existential risks. An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of humanity’s long term potential. Existential risks are “greatly neglected: by government, by academia, and by civil society.” (Ord, p.36) This is partially because before we can work towards mitigating existential risks we must understand them. “Existential risks can arise from a wide range of sources, including natural phenomena (e.g., asteroid impacts, supervolcanic eruptions), anthropogenic activities (e.g., nuclear warfare, climate change, pandemics), and emerging technologies (e.g., artificial intelligence, biotechnology, nanotechnology). Each type of risk presents unique challenges and uncertainties that require careful analysis and preparation.” Understanding the potential severity and impact of these risks involves assessing their scale, duration, and scope, as well as considering their interconnectedness and the cascading effects they may have on global systems and societies. For example, climate change may exacerbate food insecurity, leading to social unrest and conflict, which in turn could increase the likelihood of nuclear proliferation or biological warfare.  Existential risks can be hard to predict because of their high levels of uncertainty and complexity. Factors that contribute to this uncertainty include limited scientific understanding, technological unpredictability, and human behavior. Some approaches to existential risk mitigation may include  early warning systems, international cooperation, investment in scientific research and technology development, and the implementation of robust governance frameworks. 

Examining existential risks is only one intervention strategy that we can pursue to form and implement strong long termism going forward. While the effectiveness of specific interventions can vary, here are some examples of strategies that could be useful when implementing strong long termism. “Global Catastrophic Risk Reduction examples of this would be research and development to prevent pandemics, asteroid impact prevention, nuclear disarmament, and governance mechanisms to reduce the risk of emerging technologies with catastrophic potential, such as artificial intelligence. Another strategy would be Long-Term Planning and Governance which could include measures to address climate change, resource depletion, inequality, and other systemic risks that could impact the long-term future. The next strategy could be Technology and Innovation. Investing in transformative technologies and innovation that have the potential to positively impact the long-term future, such as renewable energy, advanced AI safety research, sustainable agriculture, and space exploration. Education and Awareness could be another useful strategy. Increasing public awareness and understanding of existential risks and the importance of long-term thinking can help mobilize support for relevant policies and interventions. Long-Term Investments is another crucial strategy towards working towards Strong long termism. Investing in projects and initiatives with long-term benefits, such as education, healthcare, infrastructure, and research and development, can help build a foundation for a more resilient and prosperous future.”

Prioritizing the long-term future over short-term concerns can present various trade-offs and challenges. One of the first trade offs to consider when prioritizing the long term are the immediate costs. When the benefits from immediate costs or sacrifices are uncertain or distant this can create resistance to take action especially when the cost is unpopular politically and economically in the short term. The next trade off to consider is the pressures that political and economic leaders are facing. Politicians, policy makers and economists are influenced by policy cycles and economic incentives and often face pressure to focus on immediate concerns or issues that yield immediate electoral or economic benefits, rather than investing in long-term solutions. The next trade off to consider would be Resource Allocation and Opportunity Costs Balancing. Competing priorities and allocating resources efficiently requires careful prioritization and strategic decision-making.Investing resources in addressing long-term risks or opportunities may divert resources away from addressing pressing short-term challenges, such as poverty, healthcare, education, or infrastructure. 

In Toby Ord’s book “The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity,” He argues that there is immense potential for future generations to lead fulfilling and flourishing lives . But that it can only happen if humanity succeeds in avoiding existential catastrophes.”Ord believes that existential risk reduction is a neglected priority in society and that insufficient attention and resources are devoted to mitigating these risks compared to other, less consequential issues.He argues that individuals and institutions should prioritize actions that maximize the likelihood of a flourishing future for all sentient beings, even if the benefits will only be realized centuries or millennia from now.Overall, Toby Ord’s argument for strong long termism emphasizes the importance of prioritizing the long-term future of humanity and taking decisive action to mitigate existential risks, thereby ensuring the continued survival and flourishing of our species.”

Opponents of strong long termism argue that while considerations for the future are important, they should not come at the expense of addressing urgent and pressing issues facing humanity in the present. Balancing short-term needs with long-term aspirations requires a nuanced approach that takes into account both immediate challenges and future contingencies.There could potentially be many sources of disagreement about this topic. Opponents of long termism will argue that prioritizing the distant future over present concerns ignores the moral imperative to alleviate suffering and improve well-being for individuals who are currently experiencing hardship and deprivation. They will also say that Strong longtermism’s emphasis on prevention rather than mitigation may neglect the importance of immediate intervention to mitigate the impacts of ongoing crises.Delaying action on pressing issues such as climate change, poverty, and social inequality can exacerbate these problems, leading to irreparable harm to current and future generations. People may also worry that Prioritizing strong long termism will lead to misallocation of resources away from effective short-term interventions with tangible benefits. Investments in speculative and long-term projects may divert resources from proven strategies and initiatives that have immediate positive impacts on human well-being and societal progress.

Even with the many complexities and trade offs that go into implementing strong long termism I believe it is in everyone’s best interest to at least try to do so. I also have just always been a firm believer in leaving the world better than you found it and pursuing strong long termism is a great way to do that. At the end of the day I want to be proud of the work I have done towards the conservation of our planet for the sake of future generations, not all the materialistic things that would come with being economically successful like fancy clothes, nice cars etc. Those things aren’t going to make me proud and leave me feeling fulfilled. Today’s global societies have become more and more materialistic and put way too much emphasis on the “fairytales of economic growth” (Gretta thunberg) when they should be putting the time, effort and money into the wellbeing of the planet and ALL people who inhabit it in present and in the future. Because there is no Planet B. Society has had a take take take mindset for far too long. It’s time that we as a society change that mindset and begin to give back all that we have taken. We need to start to put our energy and resources towards what really matters before it’s too late. We must put every drop of our energy into persevering our planet so that future generations can thrive. We must prioritize the mitigation of any future risks that stand in the way of the potential that humanity has yet to fulfill. Because humanity will thrive in the future if we allow ourselves to do so. Current global societies need to wake up and recognize that potential. Lets not cut future generations short because we want to take the easy way out. It’s time for us to clean up the mess we have made and start making decisions that recognize the interconnectedness of the past present and future and that will ultimately benefit present and future humanity as a whole.